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原帖由 迪克 於 2007-10-19 05:02 發表
黃金價格的高漲與近期油價上漲關聯度很大。回顧金價上漲的過程，在此前，美元的跌勢成為助推黃金價格上漲的最重要推手，美聯儲降息使得美元再次承受強大的下行壓力，美元兌歐元、人民幣乃至加元均創下了歷史上的低位。10月17日，美國將公布9月的消費者價格指數（CPI）數據，目前市場對消費者價格指數的調查值為同比增長2.8％，高于上月同比增長2.0％。而去除能源和食品價格的核心CPI調查值為同比增長2.1％，與上月數據持平。油價的高漲減少了市場對于美聯儲降息的預期。
目前的問題是，如果核心通脹未出現明顯波動，而由能源價格引帶的消費者價格指數上揚是否會打亂美聯儲原來的利率政策部署？
油價上行，則通脹風險加大，導致金價上揚。實證檢驗亦證明，石油和金價的相關系數很大，這兩個商品走勢總是具有很強的關聯性。週四油價再創新高至89.5水平，美元再次低見77.4水平，金價得到支持下，已待穩760水平上方收市。
圖表所見:金價再度在嚴重超買多級背馳下，上破高位776水平，見至768水平，後市將會高見771水平上方，筆者再次大膽預測金價短期頂部在778**水平不遠處。
看多者短期操作:762買入，止損758，第一目標772，第二目標776**。
看空者短期操作:776-8**沽出，止損783，第一目標762，第二目標756。
i find the CPI figure funny.. it was supposed to be a reflection of the change of consumer price... if they exclude oil and food, which are significant portion of consumer spending, then the CPI figure looks rather meaningless... and indeed those 2 figures have adjusted upwards signifcantly.. i think this is the way the US rigging the CPI to make it look better.. to make an illusion of controlled inflation when the real inflation situation is getting worse...
IMHO, I think that the correlation between Gold and Oil price isn't strong at all.. and also High Oil price is not the cause of price inflation, it was the result of the monetary inflation (excess money supply)
So the rise of Gold and Oil price has much more to do with the ever devaluing USD, their rise is a reflection of the weak USD, weak purchasing power... the *price inflation* that we have just begun to witness are majorly to do with virtually unlimited amount of credit and money created out of thin air (demand vs supply).. thats why we see everything rising in price - food, stocks, oil, gold... thats what keeping the illusion of propserity in DOW etc.. but in real term, they have declined...
also, there are another things going for GOLD apart from weak USD..
- there is a real increase in demand for GOLD especially from asian countries (hopefully more ppl will realise its true value and hence, scrambling to buy gold as it is the true store of wealth and value)..
- the gold cartel have been trying for years to cap the price of gold because they have a vested interest in maintaining USD (and fiat money) as world reserve currency - to make the world believe that USD (and fiat money) worth something by artificially capping the gold price... but that seems to be changing too... the cartel seemed to have tapped into US Gold Reserve in May and onwards... maybe this is gonna be their last vain attempt to cap the gold price as it seems they are running out of bullet (gold) and had to resort to dipping into US Gold Reserve?
- gold mining is increasingly costly.. and its supply is growing slower than paper money.. luckily they can't *print* Gold...
With USD heading for a train wreck (could really devalued further 30% upwards, if not downright worthless), the flight out of USD denominated assets is accelerating worldwide... and gold is one of the safest bet in a currency collapse... any tangible assets or resources will have the advantages
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本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2007-10-19 13:51 編輯 ]
