引用:
原帖由 man_go 於 2007-11-26 14:51 發表
黃金市場有多種投資方式,有實金買賣、期金、現貨金、黃金ETF......
全球成交量大,波幅亦較2005年前大。
通漲升溫,黃金發揮抗通漲及避險作用!
大家認為黃金仍會有上升動力嗎?
Yes, Gold and especially Silver will continue to go up and up...
- USD is losing its world currency reserve status, coupling with its ever depreciating USD (much more USD
depreciation to come in future), and there will be more rate cuts and more money printing from the FED to bail out
the rich banking cronies from the fraudulent toxic 'investment' they have created (credit deriviatives, SIV, CDO,
ninja mortgage etc).... just within the month of this Aug, the FED has increased money supply by over 50%... the whole bailout package could reach $2 trillion.... price inflation will only get worse...
Most wall street firms and financial banks like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, etc are cooking the book and hiding the loss through SIV by preventing losses from appearing on balance sheets and they create new 'type 3' asset for worthless junk.. they are insolvent in reality... it seems hsbc is one of the more forthcoming so far, just announced injecting $35 billions into their SIV, nobody knows if this will be their last injection and writedowns, but i think unlikely.... the next several months will reach the peak of subprime mortgage reset and expect significant increasing foreclosures too... the whole US banking and monetary system is in jeopardy right now...
- those central banks outside of the US will be increasingly diversifying out and dumping of USD, if not already
so... and also they are increasing monetary supply at least over 10% on an annualised basis just so they could buy
up the flood of easy USD on the market... so this monetary inflation is a global phenonmenon, not just limited to
USD... so its a race among currencies to devalue against Gold... thats why Gold will rise against all currencies...
with the world yet to find a currency that could replace USD's previous status of world reserve currency , gold is a "universal/stateless" currency totally accepted by any nation with half a brain... it doesnt pay interest nor dividend, but it preserve value and wealth
- and the increasing perception that the USD is really a worthless piece of paper... a note IOU (I owe you), not
money, not wealth but debt.... the phenomenon of increasing disdain for USD by the public is gaining momentum worldwide... in times of currency crisis as well as economic crisis... gold and anything tangible will be advantageous....
- there are talks of opec replacing USD by basket of major currencies.. should that happen, the demand for USD will dive sharply too... iran, venezula has used non-USD for oil transaction already... thats also why there is an iraq war because saddam wanted to trade oil in euro...
- US T-bond's yield is lower than inflation (the real CPI, not the rigged CPI)...
- the disinflationary effect of asian producers like china, india is vanishing now...
- we are running out of cheap energy
- and gold market is a much much smaller market by capitalisation than stock and bond market... but much more widely traded worldwide.... some flow of capital to gold market can easily boost it significantly....
imho, all that is needed for a significant rally in gold and silver is a change in public perception and psychology of those above (but not limited to) mentioned events... this can be any day from now... and i dont know if a panic will ensue should that happen....
Edit:
There is still one potential catch though.. it would be that how serious would be the resulting deflationary credit contraction resulting from the bursting of this massive global credit bubble...
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本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2007-11-27 12:32 編輯 ]
