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原帖由 bigdeal 於 2008-7-2 11:54 發表
such as AIG, BAC, C, JPM. I don't mind if they go lower but how likely it is that they may go bankrupt. Would appreciate your opinions.

BTW many sites I visited suggest investors to avoid  ...

they might not take the form of bankruptcy, since these same bankers are the owner of the Fed (a private company), so they Fed will try to save them (also help them hiding the loss). for example, the Fed has been buying their worthless debts/loans (subprime, alt-a cdo, mbs etc) at *face value* (meaning not marked down to falling market price) with more freshly printed worthless dollars (a little exaggerated of course), so their books are not as bad as they should be, the end result is that it is the US taxpayers who fund the bailout of such bankers... thats why the us dollar is fast becoming worthless and credibility going downhill... thats why we have oil price and commodities shooting up (and so will gold/silver), not because of speculation, it's worthless dollar, apart from supply/demand

after all these, Citigroup is still insolvent, it is the zombification of the banking systems like the one happened in Japan, loaded with bad debts, and not letting them going bankrupt.. i wont touch them even though they are all hitting new lows in the DOW, especially C... Their financial situation aside, the US economies will be *really really really bad* in the coming few years at a minimum, and their revenue will sure take a big dive.. it is not exaggerating to say this is gonna be the worst situation since the US Great Depression...  but if you are speculating for the short term, then it doesnt matter really

for big banks, bankruptcy will not be allowed by the Fed, but there could be mergers, radical downsizing, and stock price falling off the cliff, and there will be many mid/small size regional banks going bankrupt in the US...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-7-3 11:19 編輯 ]

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原帖由 師父 於 2008-7-3 17:24 發表
2003 時香港都係腥風血雨. 而家幾多人後悔無買貨.
我自己睇開 citi 同 aig.
citi 由 5x 跌到而家 18
aig 由 7x 跌到而家 2x

citi 上年每股次按撥備好似係 $4 左右. 當佢未撥晒, 未來幾年再撥 $1X, 但係佢個股價 ...

thanks sifu for the comment, i think you know better about these stocks than myself, but i think our difference stem from our different envisioning of the magnitude and nature of this crisis... and hence, i would generally stay away from any US financials with a ten foot pole...

ignoring further writedown/writeoff, it is assuming that they can maintain their revenue, which i have big big doubt ...no more money from securitization of crappy loan/debt, cdo, mbs, cds... they are laying off in thousands and sellings its piece off (Citigroup specifically) ... the past revenue/profit is being hugely inflated by an unprecedented credit bubble in the history of mankind, anyone who can breathe can get a loan in the US, this is no more..
the coming US economies will be really really bad - conservatively speaking, it is not surprising if there will be some kind of riots in the US...
and credit card default will be the next wave to watch carefully...

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原帖由 師父 於 2008-7-4 10:41 發表

yes i agree is gonna be bad, but the question is " how bad  ". to say that it would wipe out 2/3 of citibank and that it wont recover, i think is a bit too much.

sifu, you could be right about some of those US financials are ripe for bottom fishing indeed as i haven't study each individually..

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原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-7-3 11:12 發表

ignoring further writedown/writeoff, it is assuming that they can maintain their revenue, which i have big big doubt ...no more money from securitization of crappy loan/debt, cdo, mbs, cds... they are laying off in thousands and sellings its piece off (Citigroup specifically) ... the past revenue/profit is being hugely inflated by an unprecedented credit bubble in the history of mankind, anyone who can breathe can get a loan in the US, this is no more..

......

after all these, Citigroup is still insolvent, it is the zombification of the banking systems like the one happened in Japan, loaded with bad debts, and not letting them going bankrupt.. i wont touch them even though they are all hitting new lows in the DOW, especially C... Their financial situation aside, the US economies will be *really really really bad* in the coming few years at a minimum, and their revenue will sure take a big dive.. it is not exaggerating to say this is gonna be the worst situation since the US Great Depression...  but if you are speculating for the short term, then it doesnt matter really

for big banks, bankruptcy will not be allowed by the Fed, but there could be mergers, radical downsizing, and stock price falling off the cliff, and there will be many mid/small size regional banks going bankrupt in the US...

Two pieces of fresh financial news:

Citigroup sells its German retail operations.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/11/news/companies/germany_citibank.ap/index.htm?section=money_latest


IndyMac Bank seized by federal regulators - The federal government shut down Pasadena-based IndyMac Bank on Friday in what regulators called the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,0,6071779.story

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-7-12 14:41 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-7-3 11:12 發表
for big banks, bankruptcy will not be allowed by the Fed, but there could be mergers, radical downsizing, and stock price falling off the cliff, and there will be many mid/small size regional banks going bankrupt in the US...
.

I think Wachovia, Washington mutual, National City, Corus bank, Bank United will be among many others in the US to bite the dust soonish...