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原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-18 22:31 發表


Uncle 4 is adjusting his outlook for HSI (actually, who cares !?)


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A while ago, i was always wondering how Uncle 4 could be so bulllish in the stock market in view of the unraveling global financial/banking situation.. either his analysts underestimate/ignorant/incompetent of the global financial market problem or he has some hidden motive to be so bullish.... imho, the credit crunch cant really be fixed by concerted injections of central banks nor making the money cheap (lower rate) nor some bogus and unconstitutional mortage relief plan by the US Fed.. it is not so much about liquidity as insolvency of the banking system... i think the worst crisis is yet to come - with some earthquake or meltdown of proper intensity.. as we are talking about the popping of the unprecedented and massive global credit bubble and US housing bubble... and the unwinding of fraudulent and highly leveraged credit derivatives market...

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-19 20:24 發表

Looks like bloodbath is unavoidable.

There might not necessarily be a bloodbath in nominal term... but in inflation adjusted term.. yes... will get worse and worse...


For the US stock market, one possibility is a collapse at some point in future...

Another possibility is that the Dow drift sideway, probably 'orderly' adjusting downwards a bit... This latter possibility might be more likely imo because the Fed and central banks of the world are creating money out of thin air on an epic scale, trying to reflate the bubble... it might just work as there was never before money creation on such massive scale.. 500B here, 300B there... coupling with low interest rate... maybe we will not see the deflation that usually accompanies credit contraction/destruction like the old days would have... as printing machines are central banks' best friend now =)  what we will likely have is stagflation, and hyperinflation for the worst case... and also you have Sovereign Wealth Fund looking to dump their USD (saudi has loads of petrodollar, china has 1.4 trillions of reserve) without at the same time dragging USD further down in value.. this is a win win situation for SWF.. they get their asset on a very favorable terms, yet unloaded some significant amount of ever devaluing USD...

whatever 'flation' we will get... the DOW has always been collapsing in real term (inflation adjusted) for the last several years, and for the foreseeable future... the printing machines can only do so much to prevent the nominal price from collapsing...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2007-12-23 14:35 編輯 ]