I agrees with many of the things you have said  indeed, that we'll have global recession, epic US & UK depression (almost certainty), high unemployment, a war in 2009 etc... it is possible you are completely right about your scenario of highly distressed and sustained asset price deflation (after all, there are still big timebomb in cds, commercial real estate, credit card, etc waiting)
But the only thing i might contest is about the relative strength of the USD, it is partly a shortlive phenomenon due to liquidation of bad investment driving temporary demands for USD, and partly 'perceived' safe haven ... once that process is done, i think the USD will resume its dive... just witness the recent trillions worth of "reckless and irresponsible" bailout by the US Fed (US is the most indebted country in the world, this year will have the highest ever record deficit and most likely next year), where does that bailout money come from? they will never be able to borrow that trillions by selling T bonds on open market, as most foreign countries have their own economic problem to solve now, the US will feel lucky if those foreign countries don't sell T bonds to raise the money, for example, china has to use $586 billions as stimulus, the sensible option for china will be to raise that money partly by selling some T bonds, partly by printing... so for the US to do the bailout, the primary option is to print the USD *massively* out of thin air (i.e., monetize the debt by having the Fed itself buying the T bonds)...  destroying the USD in the process and inflating away the US debts (which is favorable to the US)... if this kind of bailout works, then the meltdown that we are now having would have been solved long ago [or non existent in the first place], by simply printing more USD and giving them to every debtors for settlement.. and even better give every citizen some extra for spending to stimulate the economy... and does this seem we can maintain infinite prosperity without any pain and suffering by simply giving them cheap money every time we have economic problem like the US is currently doing??  the Fed is acting like its balance sheet is *unlimited*, this is downright scary... and the trillions of phony paper USD money is only a little bit better than the monopoly money, just because the US gov claim/promise it worth something, and that we 'still' trust that the US gov will be able to make good on this promise for exchange in terms of goods and service... longer term, I believe this promise is not possible or sustainable without devaluing USD massively.. or simply the US default on its debts... the current course of action by the US gov will either lead to destruction of the USD (replace by a new currency), or a big change in the exchange rate system involving devaluation of the USD or a new monetary system....  so IMHO the hard assets & stock markets are not likely to be depressed for too long a time (provided the company haven't bankrupted and still have a viable biz under the highly distressed economy), that said, at least the DOW still have plenty of room to fall... only when the hyperinflationary money printing becomes pervasive which i don't know when, the face value for those assets will go up a lot indeed, but make no mistake, their rise is not because of economic recovery, it is purely down to hyperinflation - the worthless paper money - ... hence gold, oil, food, and commodities could be doing very well...it is good to stockpile food and water just to be safe.. all these bailouts are only delaying the inevitable, and creating a bigger crisis to come. Edit: the USD's relative value among currencies depends on if and how much other countries are gonna print their money too.. but hard assets should do well against paper currencies i believe...   .  *** just wanna share my opinion & speculation only, i have been wrong many times before, as this can be easily reversed by policy change by the real masters (secret bankers & elites in the US) who are looting people's wealth big time***

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-25 10:18 編輯 ]

I could be entirely wrong though, and indeed wishing I am wrong ...
To be honest, I think this collapse is going to be long, deep and of devastating impact, we are still in the early stage only, the whole US financial and banking system is insolvent, the commercial real estate, credit card/auto loans are only beginning to tank... and also the potential derivatives & cds timebomb, it is possible that the financial/banking system is on the brink of shutdown esp the US, UK (that is, having enforced "bank holidays" some time in future)... The UK is as bad as the US, if not more so... This depression will be spreading global, far and away...
For example, the bailout of Citigroup by the Fed doesn't make it immune from collapse, just some 'salt water' in the meantime for life support, they are still holding *tons* of toxic assets, those nuclear waste will probably be dumped onto the taxpayers eventually... If we have been reading news, we would find announcements of new bailout plan or funding almost every week, this is the money for keeping the system from total catastrophic collapse, so far, the US has pledged 7.7 *trillions* of bailout money (half of US GDP, not all 7.7T got used though, some are money guarantees only)... and the global financial & monetary system is being jeopardised by these reckless bailouts & 'stimulus' programs infused with phony money, these are akin to more shots of heroin to a drug addict (in this case debt addict), do you think this will cure him, what this will in fact accomplish, is buy him a little more time of 'fake peace & security' while making him even more ill, and hasten his eventual death... When more and more of such shots of heroin happen, it is possible the fragile 'faith' (and solely faith) that is holding together this fraudulent fiat paper monetary system to evaporate, triggering a run into hard assets... especially GOLD... up till now, Gold has been doing very well against *every* asset classes - hard, soft, commodities, currencies (except yen, usd)

The gold price in paper gold Comex market is highly corrupted and manipulated, and disconnected from reality in retail gold market price, the price gap between the two markets are gonna increase... and even holding etf gold or paper gold still have counterparty risk...
I am not convincing anybody to buy gold, but if do wanna buy, it is much better buying *physical* gold... ** again this is my opinion only, i can be entirely wrong here **

[deleted]...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-27 20:16 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 asahi 於 2008-11-27 09:39 發表 IWho will need gold when there is no war ...

 IMO, Gold doesn't need a war to shine when the paper currencies are gonna be 'worth less' and worthless every day (my guess).. There is very little inherent value for a piece of paper that have some ink on it saying it worth $100.. In zimbabwe, we will find $100 Billion inked in a piece of paper note... The situation will not be as bad as in zimbabwe though, I would stick with hard assets especially Gold, agricultural commodities, and reduced US/HKD holdings, food & water for survival    -- sorry for extra post above, pls feel free to delete the one above.. tks

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-27 22:04 編輯 ]

Hi all brothers & sister,

I didn't mean to antagonise the discussion into a bull vs bear camps, it is my wish that the HK/China economies & stock market  to thrive and prosper. I apologise if my original input offended anyone... What easylover said is true indeed, we can all make money in every kind of markets .. 

Wish you guys earning big bucks in stock market - Up or Down...