你班淡友,正妖言惑眾
20billion to save Citigroup is small money, US national debt is 10,700 Billion as we speak. Letting Big 3 auto companies GM/D-C/Ford bankrupt will create more trouble than doing nothing.
Instead of increasing money supply like he said, 20Billion will likely to have multiplier effect (1/interest rate) to flow in the market. Talking about massive deflation in USD, it will not happen like 2007 coz oil price had dropped significantly (such mechanism has to work with other nations sell-off USD to buy cheap USD-valued commodities such as oil and gold), but this mechanism had failed as other nations has more problem with their own currency)  Meanwhile the USD will remain moderate (remember, ForEx is a relative measure of purchasing power of nations), Fed will further lower interest rate to stimulate market and lowering debt interest payment for corporation. Talking about devaluation of assets/equity in housing market, I presumed most of the US problem had been sold to European banks as Financial derivatives.

hard assets has trouble on liquidity, if liquidity is no good even hard assets trigger sell-off and/or depreciation from corporations.

[ 本帖最後由 asahi 於 2008-11-26 16:30 編輯 ]

In a downturn economy, a dollar will make more cents (sense)  
I have to agree with you, that the entire problem of subprime mortgage comes from lack of regulation on derivatives, and the blind spot of the credit system (for both personal and organizational) In 2009, the emerging markets which have less influence from the tsunami & will likely become first to get out of the recession. Who will need gold when there is no war, and who will sell their equities when there is no problem. Nonetheless, when equity price become attractive and investment conditions allow, it will always be a good time to invest. If CNY devaluate appropriately (as a direct effect of the price fall in ComEx, will presumeably ease or even cure the global stagflation problem)

[ 本帖最後由 asahi 於 2008-11-27 09:42 編輯 ]

Most of the conditions u mentioned could happen. If massive deflation of USD will likely to happen yet it must cause US into hyperinflation like hardcat predicted, therefore the Fed must take this into consideration and monitor its money supply and consider which company to bailout or not.
The deflation of USD will trigger oil price to rise, and trigger another wave of USD sell-off. If thats the case hyperinflation must again occur in US.