唔知大家對油價係未來3個月既走勢點"目弟"?

11/29日一月期油係紐約收$62.46﹐係2個月來既新高。原因係之前大家都估錯今年美國既天氣﹐以為會好凍﹐結果係不尋常地溫暖﹐導致取暖用油使用量大跌。而昨晚公佈既石油庫存意外下跌﹐因而令油價勁升。今日開市幾只油股都抽高。

大家覺得呢個係冬季油價上昇既開始﹐定係短期抽高?

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2006-11-30 05:39 AM 發表

Should have strong support at US$55, esp. with winter coming up (as you correctly stated).

On Oct 5th, I did say that oil price was heading to $55... And that "Taking out the political factors, as time approaches December around Thanks Giving, oil price will likely to be up again, i.e. over $60."

Well, I don't remember if it really hit $55, but now as of Nov 30th, it's over $62.00 again.

The question as of now is, is this a short-term "technical hike" or is this due to change of demand and supply? Weather is change in the US, i.e. geting colder (see http://www.weather.com/newscente ... rom=wxcenter_news). But I don't see a significant change in demand coming up.

On the 29th, suppose Wall Street analyst surprisingly found oil inventory had gone down more than they had projected in last week, and that triggered the price jump on the 29th.

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原帖由 ALeung 於 2006-12-1 12:03 PM 發表
Oil production already peaked.........peaked........peaked......   
so the demand will always greater than the productions....plus no big new oil fields found
show you a few charts copied fr ...

Strategically, I agree that demand of oil will be on the way up. And so I think longing oil shares will get pretty good long term growths. At this point I have no doubt.

However, for the sake of speculating oil related share prices, the question n is, what is a "reasonable" price of oil now? Not too long ago it was near $70.00, but we know it wasn't because of fundamental demand/supply, it was due to poor weather forecasting plus market speculation. Now we are off this hook and back to fundamentals, how far will it go?

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原帖由 ALeung 於 2006-12-3 09:05 AM 發表


Yes....another big reason for consumption !!  
Below chart looks better............

Agree that crude oil price is starting to make a reverse turn. Which oil stock will you opt for except 857? I personally will shoot for 0135.

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原帖由 lone-traveller 於 2006-12-16 03:27 AM 發表
Warm weather affects the prices of natural gas much more than that of crude oil.  In the US, only in the North East heating oil is used for heating.  The rest of US uses mainly natural gas.  On the other hand, warmer weather usually means more driving, and the demand for gasoline would be higher.  Gasoline inventory in the US is below the five-year range right now.  Together with OPEC cutting quotas, I think the chance of oil pricel testing  US$70 is much higher than falling back to US$60.

I don't think oil price is going to test US$70.00 in any time soon just based on supply and demand. The US economy is not going as strong as expected, the dollar is getting wearker and wearker, hence the FED decided to NOT increase interest. If oild price continue rises to above $65 per barrel, it will further damage the US economy. So I think it's likely to be "controlled" to fluctuate in low$60 range, not exceeding $64. Beside, don't forget a large factor of previous high oil price was due to market speculation of oil futures. A key supporting reason for that speculation (low temperature and bad weather) has since gone burst.