the worst scenerio is US not cutting interest rate
this is possible because US needs to strengthen dollar to make US asset attractive

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-9-18 02:23 發表
The most likely scenario,,,

1. US cut .25%, HK unchanged (> 80% chance)
2. US unchanged, HK unchanged (10%)
3. US cut .5%, HK unchanged (5%),,, HK cut .25% (3%)
4. US cut .75 (<2%)

T ...

for the past few months coincidentally you amd me have been adopting the same viewpoint, thus the same investment stragety

I had reduced 80% of my portfolio in this month

now holds 6923 HSCEI put for hedging

I think US likely -0.25 only in order not to make the dollar too weak

in the worst scenerio, may keep interest rate unchanged

if so market would fall

but still think at least for HKCEI the highest point for this year has not reached yet.

from 2005 till 2007 end may be the best investment season in 10 years.

but 2008 is full of uncertainty