I'll short YEN if it reaches 98. And short more if it reaches 95.

Interest is only US0.7 per day per lot (YEN 2,500,000), so I can hold.

YEN should appreciate a little bit becoz market seems is squaring the carry-trade (selling other assets and buying back YEN).
However, Japan, which is a economic giant, will not allow YEN to appreciate too much to affect Japan's export.

I expect I can start to short at 98, and short more if reaching 95.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-10-22 20:21 發表

Meaning you expect it to move up further?

Selling YEN, buying USD.

However, YEN is very strong due to the squaring of carry-trade. So once it reaches 10X, then I need to square and close the position. It may reach 95, depends on how many more carry-trade needs to be squared.

I hear that Korea gov't and banks have been doing a lot of carry-trade (selling YEN, borrow USD or other currencies). Since the market down turn and investors (including gov't, banks etc) need to sell their assets and buying bank YEN, so YEN now is very strong becoz of the huge demand. Korea may borrow YEN at a cheaper price, but now needs to buy back at a high price. The outcome is Korea may go bankruptcy.

YEN is a difficult currency.

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原帖由 mrdailau 於 2008-10-22 21:41 發表


Do you mean buying usd/yen or selling usd/yen?
I already sold usd/yen from 10160, targeting 9800.

Shorting YEN seems like holding a falling knife....

Where is the Japan gov't to interference the YEN?? It's time for the gov't to stand up and do something.

Can't use rational reason to trade YEN, as market now is irrational.

G7 can't do much to stop the raising of YEN and against the whole market. YEN could rise to 80 for further panic squaring of carry-trade.

When YEN raises to my position, I'll square and wait and see and speculate for another chance.

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-28 11:54 發表
still feel uncomfortable to trade yen
very little deal only

Squared at 98.

And will wait for another chance if rises to 90 or more again.