I read fm Apple daily yesterday that there will be a good chance of gold in this month becoz of backwardation.

The future gold is cheaper than real time gold price. Say current gold is 1000, future gold is 900. It can mean market is expecting gold will be cheaper in the future and there should be decreasing in gold price as time goes by. But backwardation means more than that and gold is short in supply.

If short in supply, it means the future price should be more expensive than current, but not the reverse, which contradict with the current situation.

Any idea for chance??


>黃 金 市 場  歷 史  面 ， backwardation 從 未 發 生 過

Wikipedia:
Backwardation is a futures market term.

It describes a situation where the amount of money required for future delivery of an item is lower than the amount required for immediate delivery of that item. For example, immediate delivery of gold may cost $1,000 an ounce, whereas delivery in two months only costs $900 an ounce, with that $900 to be paid at time of delivery. It is a
peculiar situation, because no rational person would buy gold for $1,000 an ounce today, when they could enter into a contract to take delivery for $900 in two months time, except when they do not believe their counterparty will be able to deliver at the $900 forward price.

Thus backwardation is a signal that the item in question is in short supply.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-12-9 14:20 編輯 ]

An important meaning behind backwardation is "short in supply", which mean traders can't deliver enough gold when contracts mature.

If backwardation is true, then we can buy at any price, for the same article yesterday. But need to see if backwardation is true or not for the current gold market. However, we will never know after it appears, otherwise we'll be very rich.

If u see fm the below graph of Volkswagon, there was a short decline b4 a short rise. The short decline should "shake" many of the investors out of the market fm 400 to 200, then followed by a shoot fm 200 to 1000. If gold follows the same Volkswagon pattern, gold may drop fm USD760 to USD380, then a sudden shoot to US$1900! But of course gold and Volkswagon are 2 totally different assets, so it is unwise to follow the same pattern. Gold is a bigger market and elephant than Volkswagon, so the drop and rise should not be that crazy as the moving of the gold price needs huge amt of money.


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Another article of gold backwardation:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228499200.php

引用:

原帖由 jimmy1001 於 2008-12-9 15:37 發表
  so drop to which level you would suggest to buy in?

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-12-9 21:35 編輯 ]