Personally I think 22500-23000 [in July and August] is a good trading range to take some profit first, because minor or moderate correction, let say back to 20800-21300, is rather likely despite the still bullish trend.

Any comment and suggestion for strategic profit-taking?

引用:

原帖由 sdc2005 於 2007-7-5 01:24 發表
Personally I think it depends on which stock you are holding. I started to
sell part of 1800 & 1880. Too bad I have sold #388 at a month ago. But I have bought some 1 yesterday. So far your p ...

well, my expectation is not a "prediction", just an informed guesses,,, But guessing top or bottom is never exact, yet I think 23500-+24500 is quite likely at the end of 2007, but before reaching that level a correction is rather likely,,,,

Pushing up from 20700 to the current 22xxx was mainly the effort of strong players/hongs/funds, so they would like to distibute it downward first before another wave of collection and pushing up again,,,

So my wild guess is that gradual distribution downsward from 22500-23000 to around 21000 would be best for them to take profit and then pushing up again for the final big bull,,,,

Agree,,,,

no need to earn every penny from investment,,, 22xxx is a reasonable level, but correcting 5% is also very likely and healthy,,,, and if index stays at current level with some add momentum to around 22500-23000, many small investors will be anxious to see +24000 and compulsive to collect, providing good chance for big players to distribute first....

My last stock purchase was when index stagnant around 20300-20800, so I still have room for wiating, but dropping below the resistance around 219xx-22xxx (10 day MA and breakout points) Mcould lead to a mild to moderate correction (testing 50, 100 or even 150 MA),,,,,

Very strong momentum, and my 3988 and 903 are doing okay...

Still cautious optimistic...

今天應創新高:

要留意有没有

1. 成交／新高背馳... 若成交少於 900 億, 要小心小心 (moderately negative signal)
2. 高開低收大陰燭 (+150) 或單日轉向 (very negative signal)
3. 上升／下跌比例 (negative signal if less than 1:1 with record HSI level)
4. 老散大接大户派貨 (VERY VERY negative signal)

如上述情形有三個或以上出現, Sayonara,,,  

若只有 0-1 個, 出現則舞可照跳

引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-7-13 08:55 發表
大市高開後反覆，恆指收市報23099.29點創收市新高，升290.27，成交804億元。

one man show of 941

yes

Today...

1. 成交／新高背馳... 若成交少於 900 億, 要小心小心 (moderately negative signal)
Showing not enough momentum

But other negative signals were not present....
2. 高開低收大陰燭 (+150) 或單日轉向 (very negative signal)... not true,,,
3. 上升／下跌比例 (negative signal if less than 1:1 with record HSI level),,, not true...
4. 老散大接大户派貨 (VERY VERY negative signal)... not true...

只有 0-1 個出現, 舞可照跳    

The HSI trading range was moving up to +226xx to 23xxx/24xxx in the thrid quarter,,, I would set 10 day MA as cut-win level and let the profit run,,,

But the momentum is not too strong and the market may need some consolidation next week, but I don't think we have reached 3rd quarter top, index still have room for testing +23500-24000 level in coming 2 weeks....

OVER

brother, new high but divergence in volume, previous 2-3 new high have over 1000 億!!!

This shows a lack of momentum...

[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-14 22:35 編輯 ]

yes, so I'm not saying 100 billion in every trading day, but the day breaking record high for +200-300 point should have good volume, even not record, should be above recent average,,, that's the meaning of divergence,,, the current scenario could mean some hongs had marked up and distribute (negative candlestick), or at least having reservation at current price level,,,

Conclusion: momentum has slowdown and need to build up again (after a short-medium period of consolidation around 22800-23300)... but the danger of dropping deep and fast, from the indicators I listed above, is not likely,,,,

[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-16 02:35 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 titov 於 2007-7-16 11:02 發表
眼見D指數成份股動力減弱左, 我過去兩個交易日都沽左好多貨, 剩下25%貨度......

Good job, underweigh is a sensible move this week.... but by the end of this week the momentum maybe back,,,, I have no idea but better watch out,,,, I still hold around 85% stock after selling relative "expensive" stocks and buy back less "expensive" stocks these 2 days,,,

I already expect this week should be consolidating above 10 day MA around [22800 - 23300],,, Let see if 10MA (currently 226xx, 1-2 days later to be around 227xx) had support or not,,, if dropping below it, I will underweigh to 30-50% stock,,,



[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-16 16:11 編輯 ]