Short EURO 1.54
look 1.525 by friday night

歐元: 歐洲央行總裁會後聲明
歐洲央行(ECB)總裁特里謝稱，近期數據支撐了7月升息的決定。他並重申避免第二輪通膨效應仍很關鍵。最近數據顯示2008年中期實質經濟增長將明顯弱於第一季，歐元區經濟未遭遇重大失衡，當前貨幣政策立場將有助於實現物價穩定目標。特里謝稱歐元區經濟基本面穩健，未來經濟面臨的不確定性仍很高，食品和能源價格面臨進一步上漲風險，通膨將在2009年逐步放緩。

Its been 2 hours when the position sell EUR at 1.54 is opened
EUR now 1.532
EUR falls less quick as I expected
as oil rebounds and US stock falls reduces the strength of the dollar

may be 1.53 is the first area to consider profit taking

its lucky that when get out of bed
euro has fallen to 1.522
so squared and get the money

In short term to sell whenever rebound

Euro 20 years trend

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-11 22:32 發表

Free fall? What about NZD & AUD?

that's another brother's post
not mine

think NZD may long for short term (a few days) at 0.695
but AUD still has many bad news coming so better don't touch.
at this point shorting these 2 currencies may not be profitable taking into account of the interest loss

I rather think at 1.485 Euro may buy looking for 1.5
but long term Euro is uncertain

US dollar may not be as tough as generally expected

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-13 01:16 發表
think NZD may long for short term (a few days) at 0.695
but AUD still has many bad news coming so better don't touch.
at this point shorting these 2 currencies may not be profitable taking into acc ...

I was wrong
both NZD and AUD fall this morning

great surprise
yesterday morning 8-10 am
carry trade unwinding pushed NZD to fall from 0.699 to 0.685
18 hous later NZD now 0.702
strong rebound

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-13 22:14 發表

GBP extremely weak.

poor employment data
increase chance of rates cutting
if furhter bad data
GBP may follow the path of AUD and NZD

already fall 700 pip in a week
further trend depends on economic data

but dare not give any firm comments
all the way I can't understand GPB
as good as I understand other currencies

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-14 01:32 發表
great surprise
yesterday morning 8-10 am
carry trade unwinding pushed NZD to fall from 0.699 to 0.685
18 hous later NZD now 0.702
strong rebound

NZD now 0.706
may need to realize profit latest by this week end

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-18 23:01 發表

Take profit la.

eventually get the money at 0.7135

[ 本帖最後由 ces 於 2008-8-19 00:26 編輯 ]

May take a recess for the time being
dollar is losing strength
and other currencies are too weak to make big rebounds
market may go under a very narrow range

In September many countries will have their rate meetings :
CAD and AUD 3.9.08
Eur and GBP 4.9.08
NZ 11.9.08
US and CHF 18.9.08

So wait and see

Sorry
not yet
how about you