Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80
to me each time Yen rise
due to carry trade rewinding is good chance to sell

NZD 0.665 good price
but may further fall next week before rate meeting (next thursday)
so wait
but will take if price remains at 0.665
by wednesday

NZD -0.5 % great surprise
in short term will fall so don't touch

Yes
NZD/Yen +6% interest
around 70  is good price to hold
I've got lots of it and I plan to hold them for very long term

Long AUD/NZD in very short term may be OK
since NZD had just released a very bad news

but similar bad news from AUD may be coming
So in mid to long term I think the rate would go back to under 1.2 (now 1.23)

The 5 years chart shows 1.17 may be the middle rate

P.S. :
AUD mining
NZD agricultural

commodity market is falling so both currencies may be affected
in good economic situation minerals may have large demand
but agricultural goods are basic needs that  have market even when economic situation is bad

the value of both currency lies on their high interest rates
Even if they each cut 3 % they still much higher than other currencies.

the current sharp correction may be golden chance to hold them against US dollar

[ 本帖最後由 ces 於 2008-9-14 12:21 編輯 ]

Yes
Don't think Bush would let AIG fall

In the absence of further bad news
US stocks may rebound

For HK the rebound may be even faster
Mainland Govt is regret for having introduced so many harsh measures for the past year
It seems its has start doing something encouraging

The plunging of Mainland Bank stocks today are good chance to buy since the AIG assets (main reason for plunging) they hold are  not significant

1398 $4
3988 $2.9
no one buy

Last year same time $7.x and $5.x
All rush to buy

This is the market

[quote]原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-6 13:46 發表
Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80


Situation review  3.10.2008  2.36 am
NZD/Yen now 69.5
range since 6.9.2006  67.5 - 74.0

Never mind
Eating interest to wait

Now (6.10.2008 1.30 p.m.)
only 67
too bad

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-10-6 21:37 發表

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Yes NZD/YEN really bad recently
But won't stop loss
Just eating interest to wait

If the global financial situation become less fluctuating
Yen may correct

Yes and I am tolerating  price

Already increased
May be a long term battle

I surrendered
heavily injured

I surrendered from my long NZD/YEN wednesday night after the global nations cut their interest rates jointly. And yet market only rebound for a while and within an hour stock and high interest currencies fall sharply again.
Even this great good news could not support for a prolonged rebound. Therefore I think I should cut loss. Retain the green hill and won't afraid having no wood to burn.

I hope the measures taken by the nations may pacify the market in the longer term. If the market start to calm down carry trade may revive.