We can see that although the share markets are crashing in these days, but YEN is very strong and reached around 106 yesterday. That should be the squaring of the carry-trade.

I have some NZD-YEN long contracts, but no worry much as I am earning good interest and no any pressure to square the position. I should buy more if the pair drops more in value, and wait for the cycle to go up again.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-11 20:25 發表

AUD very weak too @0.79

YEN is hard to predict as it reflects the speculating factor but not purely Japan's own economic factor.

I think AUD should be stronger than NZD as China has real demand for many of Australian's raw materials and also AUD. NZ has not many mining business as Australia.

To long AUD/NZD, u need to pay interest......

Forex is a difficult game.

Not interest in AUD/NZD as:
1) Need to pay interest if need to sit in boat
2) Variation between 2 currencies should not be big enough

There should be other currency pairs or single currency to speculate for better opportunity cost.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-13 13:24 編輯 ]

Resulting of the squaring of the carry-trade.

But I'll start to short YEN when it reaches 100 or higher.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 21:21 發表

JPY heading to 100. Wow.

I have sold out all Australian and HK stocks including Manulife which are making profit and increase my cash position.

Feeling scary if the AIG collapses, which is highly likely. The AIG share prices was USD60 in Jan-2008, and the price was USD4.7X last Friday, but now is only USD3.88. It is not much difference fm bankruptcy but just a matter of time. The collapse of AIG should have much influence on the confidence on the equity market. I maybe able to buy back the sold shares at a much lower price later.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 22:26 發表

Highest at 103.5 today. AUD is scary the way it is falling but Aussie resoures stocks are reatively OK.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-17 09:40 編輯 ]