引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-4 15:11 發表
駔驍之首, 糖果博士, 工程塑料, 大師傅 all dead

勁呀

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-4 15:11 發表
駔驍之首, 糖果博士, 工程塑料, 大師傅 all dead

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-4 10:31 發表
每日死狗 for 4/3/07

Race 1: 駔驍之首
Soumillon had tried his best in getting a winner in the last few races but failed proving that it's either a rubbish horse or a long distance horse needs a  ...

每日死狗 for 4/3/07 are all out of the first 3 positions!

每日死狗 for 7/3/07

Race 1: 無提供

Race 2: 無提供
At last, I didn't put 驊中龍 on list, but I still worry about his failure to win in this race.
Reason:
a. The standard of his last race waas extremely low;
b. He is to carry 132lb which is too heavy for a young horse;
c. There are quite a lot of challengers:  3 new horses, and horse number 4,11,12 are also have winning ability.  
Good luck to those betting win on him.(I won't do that and will use my betting method in this race)

Race 3: 駕馭
Reason:
a. He seems not to be a good horse and the 2nd runner-up he got in the last race was not of high standard;
b. Odds too low for a horse being a winner in new horse races and defeated 10 times after allocated into normal classes;
c. 文家良 is not a staple that can be relied on. It's one of the most 不正气 staple in HK (LEUNG Ding-wah is another one). Avoiding betting on its odds-on-favourite horses will enhance chance of winning money;

Race 4: 無提供

Race 5: 熊中雄
The horse has run toomuch in this season and its rating seems to be saturated. I think he could come back at 2-6 this race and hardly win again in this season.

Race 6: 高高的
LEUNG Ding-wah is a staple whose hot horses cannot be trusted. 高高的 is a horse with ability,but it's a coming-behind-horse such that it's very easy to lose a race if desired. I will bet on him when the odds is over 10:1

Race 7: 功力勝
It's a semi-virgin (got only 1 win out of 20 races). Moore's staple is at its low tide. He seems to run better at Shatin. I don't think it's worth betting on him at 6:1.

Race 8: 加州巔峯
After four times coming back at the second position, his rating is still at 78 (only 1 point higher than before) showing that the Stewart doesn't weigh him a very good ability. I think he would even lose the first two position this race, as Track A is not suitable for a leading horse to get good performance.

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-7 02:46 PM 發表
每日死狗 for 7/3/07

Race 1: 無提供

Race 2: 無提供
At last, I didn't put 驊中龍 on list, but I still worry about his failure to win in this race.
Reason:
a. The standard of his last race wa ...

你講咁多隻，好似全部都有揀

[ 本帖最後由 紅豆沙 於 2007-3-7 15:05 編輯 ]

我貼第三場 (盟友): 因為今季九歲或以上老馬無一隻可以連續兩場走入place

引用:

原帖由 紅豆沙 於 2007-3-7 14:52 發表

你講咁多隻，好似全部都有揀

我未必对的嘛！

引用:

原帖由 細摩 於 2007-3-7 14:53 發表
我貼第三場 (盟友): 因為今季九歲或以上老馬無一隻可以連續兩場走入place

Track A is not suitable for 盟友, as he has only 1500m 气量！(if there were a 1500m distance, he might have got 3-4win)

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-7 03:16 PM 發表


我未必对的嘛！

咁又係

Tonite I've made history in 死狗, 4 out of my 5 selection won ...I think Changmao has won a lot of money because he always treat me as his lantern

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-8 00:09 發表
Tonite I've made history in 死狗, 4 out of my 5 selection won ...I think Changmao has won a lot of money because he always treat me as his lantern

唔緊要啦，全部大熱門！     而且，你都早早對豆豆講左：

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-7 15:16 發表

我未必对的嘛！

收拾心情，下次再長期討論！   

順便恭喜長毛！  

標青兄，昨晚你隻愛駒出場喎，有冇買番ｄ？

下次去馬，早ｄ通知聲！　

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-8 00:09 發表
Tonite I've made history in 死狗, 4 out of my 5 selection won ...I think Changmao has won a lot of money because he always treat me as his lantern

偶有所失, 非戰之罪~

引用:

原帖由 HJ2127_ATR1 於 2007-3-8 09:09 發表
標青兄，昨晚你隻愛駒出場喎，有冇買番ｄ？

下次去馬，早ｄ通知聲！　

.....我都俾某報馬經版個大標題嚇一大跳，自已報名出賽俾人騎都唔知！

   現場見佢有廿幾倍差點搵左佢做膽拖全餐，嘻嘻，好彩冇！

卒之會搵次打水片捧下場！

3月10日死狗:

Race 1: 新力高
Reason:
1. Whyte and Moore's effect this season;
2. 新力series are very aggressive that most 新力's will perform well at the first start (eg. 新力度，新力劲，新力升．．．). As 新力高 was the second hottest horse last time but performed badly, I think 新力高 is not a very good horse and no.5,4 and 1 will defeat him tomorrow (especially horses no.5 and no. 4)

Race 2: 連冠精英
He may be the second-third hottest horse tomorrow. It's not worthy betting on a horse which has never got a place at win odds < 8:1. S K Sit is a jockey whose winner seldom < 20:1.

Race 3: 無提供

Race 4: 無提供

Race 5: 常山鎮寶
It's been proved to be a rubbish which always attracts eyes of junior punters or punters never been grown up. It's now class 5 and I think he may have better chance to get places or even a winner later, but based on the principle of never betting on these kind of 常规热死狗, I put him on list again. (Suppose he could get a winner finally, I think I have got several success in predicting him as 热死狗 already la)

Race 6: 無提供

Race 7: 勝利鑽石
Put him on list again (I have done this 3-4 times after I established this thread this season, and it has proved that I am right to do so). I think he may come back at 2-5 but still could not win.

Race 8: 無提供

Race 9: 無提供

Race 10: 高點
It's dangerous to bet on a virgin horse whose win odds may change from 40:1 to around 6:1.

Race 11: 無提供


Race 8

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-9 10:11 發表
3月10日死狗:

Race 1: 新力高Reason:
1. Whyte and Moore's effect this season;
2. 新力series are very aggressive that most 新力's will perform well at the first start (eg. 新力度，新力劲， ...

我覺得幾好 chance ，因為上次跑得唔差而分齡減磅好著數。

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-10 09:36 發表


我覺得幾好 chance ，因為上次跑得唔差而分齡減磅好著數。

Dead already

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-10 16:27 發表


Dead already

但都跑得幾好 wor ...

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-11 17:01 發表


但都跑得幾好 wor ...  

deleted...(accidentally posted for 2 times)

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-11 21:43 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-11 17:01 發表


但都跑得幾好 wor ...  

Yes,
My point of view:
马主 of ＂新力＂系，＂常山＂系，＂钢＂系（＂出奇＂马主），＂箭＂系＂，必Ｘ勝＂系 are all of very good sport spirit, as we ca see most horses of them will try their best in getting the best position, even at the first start. (eg.  新力度，新力升，钢力，出奇，常山名驹，常山多宝，银箭，most 必Ｘ勝...).

Therefore, if a horse of them has run 2-3 starts, came back closely but couldn't win, I would assume the horse may not be a good horse. If after many races that it still being a virgin, I would 睇死 the horse.
Prominant examples are 常山镇宝， 必永勝. I put them on my dead dog list already!
For this 新力, maybe it's too early to certify him. I will keep my eyes on him and I thik I could come to a solid conclusion within 3-4 races.

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-11 08:48 PM 發表


Yes,
My point of view:
马主 of ＂新力＂系，＂常山＂系，＂钢＂系（＂出奇＂马主），＂箭＂系＂，必Ｘ勝ᦀ ...

o我出左兩次既？

我覺得熱門才可冠以死狗的Title，如果無飛如最近的必永勝、常山是沒必要的。有些馬不是死狗，但局限於跑法是很難很難出頭，例如：甜心、非我莫屬.... 通常都會有1W多P，勝利鑽石亦如是 ... 但收Place也很好。

勝利鑽石跑姿好論盡，要够寬濶的空間去衝，不是均速馬，放頭唔掂。而且要有快步速。

如果勝利鑽石要有WIN，應早放棄冼毅力策騎，找個7磅trainee...二叠找遮擋 轉入彎後出大外叠蝕位在大外檔去衝。會早日WIN。

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-12 08:57 發表
我覺得熱門才可冠以死狗的Title，如果無飛如最近的必永勝、常山是沒必要的。有些馬不是死狗，但局限於跑法是很難很難出頭，例如：甜心、非我莫屬.... 通常都會有1W多P，勝利鑽石亦如是 ... 但收Place也很好。

When I put 必永勝 on list, he was the odds on favorite!
常山 was also among the hottest horses in the races, the principle of setting up 热死狗 is to spot the horses (should be the third few hottest horses in a race) that are too hot (relative to his reasonable odds ought to have been),  常山 is always a horse that carries betting money beyond his ability. I think he should beyond 20:1, but he always become the hottest forst 3 horses. Last time he's 7:1, came back at 4th, money betting on him being shared by the smarter punters again

I put 勝利鑽石 on list is to tell all of you I bet him could not win but may come back 2-4(You can se it in my reminder for him). My point is: Risk in horse racing is extremely high, avoid betting W on some horses like 勝利鑽石 is on the other hand a profit making process. To pick up horses hardly to win like 勝利鑽石,  必永勝, 抢首 is surely the aim of 每日死狗.

I hope you could give us more input regarding this topic, thank you very much!

如果有個topic係每日冷狗，我會盡力提供，因為我最喜歡捉冷狗。

上周末有爪皇就不怕捉不到家福了。