HSI has broken the 10-week avearge line today (at 22,127) and at the same time the 50-day line (at 21,931) has also been broken, with the lowest at 21,917. However, HSI rebound after touching the 50-day line, so as I suggested yesterday 50-day average could still serve as the short term support.

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

I guess tomorrow HSI will also rebound to fill the gap produced today.

Your view please ??

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-6 19:02 發表
HSI has broken the 10-week avearge line today (at 22,127) and at the same time the 50-day line (at 21,931) has also been broken, with the lowest at 21,917. However, HSI rebound after touching the 5 ...

No, it will fall!

Dow still fluctuate a lot at its start. However, Yen go back to 117.89. 10 year bond yield jumps 0.024. All these indicators suggests Dow is very likely to have a rebound tonight waiting for the comments and the decision of Federal Reserve.

Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

引用:

Originally posted by leoxi at 2007-8-6 22:38
Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

Yes,

I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebound and turn positve again.

After a big drop in the last week, Dow seems to recover from a "big flu", and it takes time for it to achieve full recovery, anyway it will be better later. Hopefully Dow will have at least some gain tonight, so HSI will have a rebound tomorrow

Please also note that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection tonight, so the credit concern raised again and erased Dow early gain.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-6 22:59 發表



Yes,

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-6 23:16
I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebou ...

Yes, it is.  I hope so too.  Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US.  In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not able continously to make their payment and unemplyment rate is low.  Therefore, market is over reacted and exaggerated the real situation.

So, it is an excuse for fund houses to crash the market easily.  Especially in HK, only HSBC has done 2nd home mortgage in US and its earning report was great, better than expectation.
Bank of China claimed, only lost several millions US dollars that is much much smaller than Chinese banker who had stolen money from bank of China. Maybe US problem only 0.001% compared to herself in China.

HK market still looking good, if HK market not dropped, how can those fund houses to buy more cheap stocks when QDII money coming to HK soon.

Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a sensible way it could lead to many other problems. Anyway, good to see that Dow really rebound and up 280 points.

Yesterday even the investment banks such as Bear Stearn also rebound by more than 5%. However, the market might over-estimate the remedial action possibly taken by the Federal Reserve or the US government for the credit risk.

Let's see how HSI react today.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 00:18 發表




Yes, it is.  I hope so too.  Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US.  In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not abl ...

引用:

原帖由 leoxi 於 2007-8-6 22:38 發表
Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

Wait and see but should be UP after big rise in US overnight.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 08:25
Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a s ...

Lacking of power for rebound this morning so far, only 200 pts, under our expectation.  Hopefully, getting up and up today.

People are looking for steady market after dropped over 500 pts in a days for couple times within 2 weeks.  Who really want to buy more shares in this downside market.

HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 14:23
HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

I hope so, but atmosphere is not that good.
Always wish for the best and prepare for worst

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 14:33 發表
I hope so, but atmosphere is not that good.
Always wish for the best and prepare for worst

The WORST is yet to come!

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:10

The WORST is yet to come!

I think so, based on past experience, the market would big drop 2~3 days in a role.  When everybody lost confident, and sold most or all their stocks on hand, then the all stocks and market will rise dramatically.  Since big guys collected most cheap stocks from us

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 15:17 發表
I think so, based on past experience, the market would big drop 2~3 days in a role.  When everybody lost confident, and sold most or all their stocks on hand, then the all stocks and market w ...

BINGO. You know the rules very well!

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:35

BINGO. You know the rules very well!

After paying so much school fee before, should learn something from there

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 15:41 發表
After paying so much school fee before, should learn something from there

Hope you kept your cool. I lost big on some "9th rate companies" but easy come easy go!

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:06

Hope you kept your cool. I lost big on some "9th rate companies" but easy come easy go!

Pretty bored these days when looking at the market keep gonig downside everyday; all I have to do, save cash at this stage, don't buy anything, just waiting and be patient until finally crash; then buy all stocks and call warrants as many as I can to recover my loss.

I also lost badly on call warrants too

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 16:17 發表
Pretty bored these days when looking at the market keep gonig downside everyday; .

Why don't you PUT instead?

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:36

Why don't you PUT instead?

I lost 30% on thursday 2 weeks ago when the market turned to downward from upward in the morning, and I just waited for another day, but friday, I lost another 50% in a day.  So, nothing I can do since paper value lost 70%.  Therefore, I just hold it and wait till the end of correction, then mass buy back more shares and call warrant for recovery.

The market may stop downside at 21500, or maybe 21000, or even 20000.  So, I rather to hold it til end of this month in my situation

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 17:02 發表
I lost 30% on thursday 2 weeks ago when the market turned to downward from upward in the morning, and I just waited for another day, but friday, I lost another 50% in a day.  So, nothing I ca ...

My friends have cut loss on HSI Index futures. All were killed off by the bear.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:05

My friends have cut loss on HSI Index futures. All were killed off by the bear.

Agreed and I got that experience before; especially with HSI future, too rough and could loss huge money on it.
I only use my cash account to do trade, no margin at all.  All I lost, is all the cash I have on hand.  Different from HSI future.  

I owed so much much money when I cut off at HSI future in 2003; took me 4 yrs to pay back.  Big lesson

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 17:16 發表
Agreed and I got that experience before; especially with HSI future, too rough and could loss huge money on it.
I only use my cash account to do trade, no margin at all.  All I lost, is all  ...

Yes, so is lesson that easy money cannot be made by hardworking people? Large profits are for the big players?

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:19

Yes, so is lesson that easy money cannot be made by hardworking people? Large profits are for the big players?

Always truth

It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in the small stocks market and most of the small stocks drop at least 10-20% (261, 245 & 648 for example). It seems that the hedge fund is taking profit everywhere and lead the drop. Owing to the fact that HSCEI is rising too quickly in the past few months, so the comparatively bigger drop in HSCEI is reasonable as the big crocodile buy the HSCEI chips at a relatively low price (such as 1800 & 2328). They could still earn a lot even if they throw to the market now.

My prediction is that HSI could still hold the 50-day line (same as HSCEI), but tonight is a very crucial moment to determine the pace of the US market as Federal Reserve might give some hints to the market whether or not the rate cut will happen soon (the market was disappointed with the strong economic data tonight).

My another observation is that some of the relatively weak blue chips could still hold the 100-day line (except 17).  However, 941 and 2628 is still strong and haven't touched the 50-day line.

Let see whether HSI need to go to another support at 21,301 (i.e. 20-week avearge line which is away from the present position by around 600 points). If so, HSI will fall around 2,000 points from the recent peak, which records a 8.5% drop. (in last Feb a 11% drop was recorded)

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-7 22:15 編輯 ]