引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 22:11
It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in  ...

Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, then HK opened a bit high, but not much, then going down to even or even negative at closing.
US down, then HK down much much faster and deeper.
The situation almost happens everytime, is a must, same trend, think about how was HK market in correction before.

I don't think this week is good at all, be patient

Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend to buy something at this moment. Choosing some of the "good and quality" blue chips at this moment would be safe as you could keep it for a long time until it come back to your home price.

Back to the statement made by the Federal, in its brief document Sub-prime's matters haven't been commented. However, the memebers of the open committee agreed that

"Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy"

If they are correct, credit concern will not pose significant threat to the economy, so Dow first down 120 points after the statement and up again by around 130 points (because of the good outlook of the economy even with credit risk). Rise in commodity price (e.g. oil) is still a big concern to create inflation (however, not the code CPI which is calculated without counting enery and food).

After the release of rate unchanged, the bond yield return to a "quite normal" level. Yen is still okay trading in the range of 118.5 to 118.9.

I guess HSI will have a "real" rebound today.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 00:33 發表



Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, the ...

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 08:34
Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend  ...

Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper.  This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correction is not last for a day or 2, it is lasting for couple weeks normally.  Therefore, rebound is still exist during correction, but not much power on it.  You can look how the market is doing these 2 weeks.

Of course, I wish the correction is over, then whole market rises again, and we all make $$

A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent ! Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise today is healthy. I don't think the gain will be erased this afternoon. Haha

(Dear 3a4b5c6c, sorry i can't reply to you right now. I will give you some response after work today. )

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 10:25 發表



Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper.  This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correc ...

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 12:17
A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent ! Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise to ...

Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over.  But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more days.

Since it still might be a trapped to us, people got back confidenet and started to buy more and more shares then big drop.  This period of time, better to play more safe, I don't mind to buy spend small money to buy some potential stocks, but not big money at this moment.

We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover today is comparatively small, it would still be okay as a lot of investors are still observing the market and hence small turnover. According to my experience, if they could confirm the recent correction has finished, the turnover will be bigger and push the HSI further up.

But of course, negative factors are still there in the market. It is really very difficult to say whether the correction has finished or not. It takes at least one or two day more before we could have a conclusion on the direcion of the market. However, at least, we know the Federal Reserve is still optimistic about the moderate growth of US economy even with the credit risk and other concern.

The gap (at around 22,240 to 22,640) produced by the drop on Monday was filled today. The upper resistance should be at around 23,240. And of course for the down side, I still think that 50-day line (at 21,999) could still serve a good support at the moment.

Dear my friends, we need to get prepared and plan for what should we do (buy or sell) in different situation, as the direction of HSI is still unclear.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 13:38 發表



Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over.  But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more da ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 22:53 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 22:50
We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover to ...

Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.
From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000.  Back and forth for  couple times, but the gap will be smaller and smaller everytime.  For 1000 pts reduce to 300 pts.
It happens almost everytime(90%) times.  This is their technique to do it.

At the final stage, when everybody fully confident and used up all purchasing power, then big guy will pull down the market to 21000 if any global news in negative at the same time when HSI down to 22000.

I will sell most or all stocks when HSI reach 23000, and wait for it drop back to 22000 and buy back all.  The back and forth trend will last for 3~4 times easily.  But be more caution when it hit the third times 22000.  Since more and more times to hit 22000 and get rebound, then all people will be crazy to buy and buy all shares without alert.  Then got trap.  This will happen if big guy wants to pull market down, it can last for 2 months, just like in March this year.

3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and then rebound, and fall again, so and so forth.

However, within rebound and fall, if you could take the right time, you could earn some money at least (for example I have bought 291 yesterday at 29.55 and sell at 30.35 today with a net profit of $1,100 {because i have a price in mind how much I earn will make myself happy so I will sell immediately without haste if reaching that target}, even if the profit is small, but i am still very happy with it). Therefore, the trend of the market need our frequent observation.

Trap and risk are always there in the market, more observation in the market will make you more confidence to determine the HSI future movement.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:07 發表




Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.
From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000.  Back and forth for  couple times,  ...

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:18
3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and th ...

Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right.  Since big guys do this everytime.  

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 or $10000, reach your target price and can; nothing wrong.  As long as you feel comfort and satisfy.

I have been trading stocks for long time, won and lost a lot of money from US and HK market before, is getting better now after paying so much school fee, should be smarter than before.  but still learning everytime when I did not sell my stocks on hand before correction.

You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, during the fluctuated market, even you earn $1,000 it is still somehow difficult. For me I will have a list of good blue chips to monitor, if those chips fall to a unreasonable price, I will buy it for short term and earn some money (such as 291). If it really fall below your buying price, that's fine because you could keep it as it is good in nature.

By the way, 3a4b5c6c, you should be very experienced. I don't have experience in trading the US market (even if several months ago I wish to buy the stock Apple before its release of I-phone). I will monitor the US market and some of its stocks only !! I still have lesson with Dow and HSI everyday (and of course other markets such as European markets and Asian market)!!

Please share with me and other friends here more !! I am not as experienced as you do as I join the game at the time when HSI is at around 11,000.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:40 發表



Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right.  Since big guys do this everytime.  

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 23:56 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:52
You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, ...

Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its would be turned out couple times from now for some of these stocks.  I hold some of it from 2 yrs ago.
Another good stocks to hold for 1 yr from now such as 753, 552, 2899, 939, 1898, turn out will be good too

That is very truth, it is tough to make money during correction, no matter you made 1000 or 10000, always be caution at all time especially on upside, people will be less and less caution, always get a big trap when market turns around.

For US market, I did not trade anymore, I did trade it back to 1996~1999 when I was in north america, I traded most stocks in Nasdaq, made big and loss big there too when Nasdaq dropped couple thousand pt back to 1500 pts, then I quited it for while.  
Till 2000, I opened US account at Charles Schwab in HK, and started to trade again.  But you have to watch the market all night, make you so tired.  

But the most important thing is, US stock can be up and down so fast and so big. Blue chip can drop 20% or more if they have bad news come.  Even good earning report, but fair or negative comment for future, the stock can be unbelievable dropped.  I had IBM before, earning report beat the street, but they announced slow down next quarter, then the price dropped by 20%, from $120 to 100/share in a minute. Many big stocks dropped from 150 to $2 in short period of time before.

It is not easy to trade in these yrs since US market always support by high tech and bank stocks. And high tech stocks can not go back to the record high from yrs ago.

I personally would say, HK and China market are very good in next couple yrs, but not US.  
If you want to trade US stock, you are better to open US account.  Can choose Charles Schwab, it is a big broker firm, and get some information from them first.
For specific stock, I can advise you even I did not trade there for long time.

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 08:34 發表
Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !
Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend  ...

Don't underestimate the strong JPY. It will come back to put the stock market into chaos. Wait till it gets to @115 against USD.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:40 發表
Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 ...

One should based sell or buy decisions on percentages, not absolute $ targets.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 21:14

One should based sell or buy decisions on percentages, not absolute $ targets.

It depends on the real situation. If market doing down, no matter how much money or % you made or lost.  Have to sell your stocks immediately.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 21:46 發表
It depends on the real situation. If market doing down, no matter how much money or % you made or lost.  Have to sell your stocks immediately.

This is always good in theory but hard to do in reality. Not many small players know how and when to cut loss.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 22:02

This is always good in theory but hard to do in reality. Not many small players know how and when to cut loss.

Yes, I agreed, I fell in traps so many times before, and learnt a lot of lessons.  Now getting much better and better, not fall to trap often, even fall , only small %, it is okay

3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual stocks. Actually, i am more intersted in trading stocks in the HK market since I also don't wish to sleep with high tension (otherwise will have no energy to work during the day time). Anyway, if that need arises, I will seek for your suggestion for sure.

Back to the discussion in the market, as I mentioned in my previous post, we still need to observe the market for a few days before we could confirm the correction has finished. Yesterday we have filled the gap produced on Monday. After filling the gap, the index going up or down is still an uncertainty. But now it seems that HSI really need to test the strength of 50-day line tomorrow.

It is really not a good news that BNP was one of the victims in subprime crisis. The market is now thinking that more and more other investing banks will come out and admit that they are affected by the credit crisis too. Thus, the european market, especially BNP's home country - CAC, fall more than 2%, while Dow drop around 1.5%. However, it is really praiseworthy for the very fast reaction of Euro Bank to stable the credit market.

In my point of view, I still buy the comments given by the Federal Reserve that US economy will not be seriously affected by the subprime concern and will continue to have moderate growth. Most of the big US companies still have a good bi-annual result. I think if the market drop to a certain level (i don't think it is substantially away from the present position) the fund managers and other investors will come out and buy to support the market.

It is challenging to predict whether Yen will go down to 115 or not. In recent days it is traded within a range of 117.8X to 119.7X. We should see whether Yen could break 118 and stand at around 117.8 first. Please note that BOJ will determine the rate decision again on 22 & 23 August. Some say that BOJ will rise the interest this time and some say that BOJ will not raise the rate because of instable political atmosphere. Therefore this incoming meeting is very important to determine the trend of the US and HSI market. (Note: In the last two rise in the BOJ's interest, the market drop signifcantly afterwards)

Be careful in trading !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 00:23 發表



Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its wou ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-9 22:34 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-9 22:25
3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual s ...

Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway.  Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of my friends are doing trade at US market in north america today.

It is better to concentrate in HK market since we are here.
You information and analysis are so good, calm and clear.  You know what you are doing.

100% agreed your opinion.  
Initially, I expected HSI would rebound to 22900 and drop back for 1000 pts.  And HSI turned around at 22797 today, I think HSI will test 50 day line tomorrow, and have a high % to break through down to 21800~21600 in next 2~3 trading days if US market still have bad news coming.
Close to 21800, I think I will buy some stocks for rebound, if going down deeper to 21600, then buy more, and big rebound will be there.  This kind of trend will last for 3~5 times during correction as I had mentioned before.  Take these back and forth to make some money.  always within 1000 pts, the gap getting narrow and narrow each time till 300 pts, then market will rise again.

Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing", 3a4b5c6c. It is true indeed !! The whole August is actually a challenging month to do the investment (July and August is usually the month with a lot of fluctuation as in the past years). Pending the BOJ's rate decision on 23 August, as mentioned before, is very important to decide the direction of the market.

Haha, let me remind all of our friends here of the incoming QDII money. It seems that the hot "red money" will come at the earliest in late August and September. Everyone seems to forget all the good news during a downside market.

As in the past years, after we go through the "challening" August, we will see another record high again in the late 3rd quater and the 4th quater of 2007.

Dow only drop 117 points now, Good !! Are they expecting Federal Reserve will do something to remedy the market ?? Haha !! Likely that the US economy is still in a good shape !! Hopefully Dow will not be pulled down again during the last half an hour.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 22:55 發表




Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway.  Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 00:16 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 00:14
Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing&q ...

That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts.  I bought some shares this morning

I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are so brave to buy some stocks today. For me now I will switch to buy some conservative stock (such as 1398) if it fall to my target buying price. Haha !

Will share with you more tonight !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 11:03 發表




That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts.  I bought some shares this morning

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 16:10 發表
Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that..

Keep CASH for now.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 16:10
I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are ...

Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today.  At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stocks today and made some profit.

Federal Reserve pour another 19 billions tonight to the market to ease the credit contraction. Perhaps Benerake need to jump out and say something to make the market feel more comfortable, instead of releasing more and more reserve to the market. Otherwise Dow at 13,000 could not hold as the atmosphere in the market is too bad, even if the US economy is still healthy.

Drop in the Europeran Markets were horrible before 9:00 tonight and Yen jump to 117.3X.

The market is still very bad so I don't advise to hold many stocks overnight but for long term investment one could start to collect some quality stocks (of course steps by steps, not in one goal).

For HK, 50-day line really can't hold so the next target is the 20-week average which is 21,295 and the 100-day line which is at 21,201. These two line in my point of view could provide stronger support at this stage. (941 finally touch the 50-day line today).

If Federal Reserve do nothing at this stage, I can't see a strong rebound will be incoming within these few days.

Take care, friends.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 20:24 發表



Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today.  At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 21:43
Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stoc ...

Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, major crash can occurred; that all countries know and understand.  Trying to avoid it; and can see they react much fast in these 2 days compared to last 2 months.

In HK, this is a psycholgicial effect more than actual effect, and also an excuse to pull down the market and collect some quality stocks but at lower price.
We can see HSI easily test 100 day line next week.  As you have said, I also agreed, we should start to collect some quality stocks for long hold.  

HSI will be very strong at 21000 level, so don't mind to buy some when HSI reachs below 21500 next monday or Tuesday.  Assume 20800(150 line) is the bottom line in this correction, below 21500 is not too bad to buy more and more, of course not buy all in once.

Good luck to all of us next week