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­ì©«¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-17 08:50 µoªí
Yes, I agree. It should have less room for further drop, but 250-day line still serve as a support.
Too horrible to hear that Yen has reached 110.1 yesterday night !! Now at 113.81, Japanese peo ...

110 - very scary!

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-8-17 00:52 µoªí

110 - very scary!

die hard...... 110..........

Oh, sorry. I type it wrong. Should be 112.01 !!!

But at this time it is likely for it to jump to 110.

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­ì©«¥Ñ mmr.ren ©ó 2007-8-17 09:07 µoªí


die hard...... 110..........

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­ì©«¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-17 09:20 µoªí
Oh, sorry. I type it wrong. Should be 112.01 !!!
But at this time it is likely for it to jump to 110.

110 can be reached soon.

You are exactly right !!! Too horrible recently. Now Yen trade near 113.03. Below is the extract from bloomberg.

"The yen rose to 152.08 per euro at 10:20 a.m. in Tokyo from 152.88 late in New York yesterday, when it reached 150.03, the highest since November. It also climbed to 113.38 against the dollar from 113.89 yesterday, when it touched 112.01, the strongest since June 2006. The yen may rise to 110 against the dollar and 145 per euro in a month"

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-8-17 09:21 µoªí

110 can be reached soon.

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­ì©«¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-17 09:23 µoªí
You are exactly right !!! Too horrible recently. Now Yen trade near 113.03. ..

Yes, no EYE see la.

The only reason for me to explain for the roller coaster today is because those pushing the market down (likely that they are holding put Futures contract) see that Nikkel fall more than 5% today and that is a good excuse to push the market further down for around 1,300 points and significantly deviate from the 250-day line. However, after 3:00 pm, they see that European market is rebounding so they afriad that Dow will rebound too tonight. In order to get away for this risk, they need to stop and those friendly guys started to counterattack again and make HSI rebound.

The market is still unclear, so don't think that the worst is over. Trade with caution.

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-17 16:14 ½s¿è ]

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­ì©«¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-17 16:11 µoªí
The only reason for me to explain for the roller coaster today is because those pushing the market down (likely that they are holding put Futures contract) see that Nikkel fall more than 5% today a ...

The worst is not over as HSI future down 200 points more from physical HSI.

Very luckily that the Federal Reserve finally cut the discount rate by 0.5%, with the following statement:

"The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets"

It might be possible that the Federal Reserve will also cut the federal funds rate which is currently at 5.25%. Before that, Fed wish to observe the environment after cutting the discount rate. However, Fed need how much time to observe ?? Will the Committee immediately cut the federal funds rate in its next meeting in September after cutting the discount rate in the middle of this month??

Some of the analysts are actually saying the right thing, is that the cutting of discount rate will benefit the subprime victims ??

As for my comments, discount rate will temporarily play a positive role in the market and the people will expect Fed will cut the rate soon. However, the subprime crisis still haven't been solved at the moment. Cutting the discount rate will benefit the banks and the big company lowering their cost of borrowing, and it takes a considerable period of time for this benefit passing to the victims of the crisis. Only if the rate cut in the federal fund rate will penerate to these victims at once. Cut in federal rate might lower their financial burden by paying less interest, and also the atomosphere of the housing market might be boosted by the rate cut.

I have another question in mind "Will the US Economy start stepping into the downside of the cycle ??" after the rate cut. For me, rate cut means that the economy start to have some problems and could not sustain under a high interest rate environment.

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­ì©«¥Ñ leon3114 ©ó 2007-8-19 13:20 µoªí
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Really?

It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product previously promoted in China. The small investors will finally realize that HK is a very good market to play with because HK will not have a trading suspension mechanism even if the stocks jumps and falls by more than 10%. Perhaps later "small price stocks" will attract lot of these "red" money and the crazy environment in trading small stock will re-appear again in the near future. Of course, HKEX will be the company most influenced by this verygood news. Will the HSI have more than 200 Billions turnover per day later ??

Back to the discussion of the market, it is very difficult to use technical anlaysis to predict the market trend right now. However, as we could see from the graph, there are still many gaps HSI have to fill, the 20-day line (at 22,226) will serve as a resistance.

Don't be so optimistic at the moment. We still need to observe what is going to happen in the US market. Subprime crisis is still there and remains unsolved. The incoming data in this week (such as Initial Jobless Claims on Wed, Durable Goods Orders (New Orders) on Thur and the most important one on Friday - the New Home Sales) will play a crucial role in leading the market.

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-20 20:54 ½s¿è ]

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-20 20:52
It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product pr ...

I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today.  That is very good.

I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I left HK; both got filled with good price.  I did not believe it could be filled.

Dow is now still down 65 pts, don't know what will happen later tonight, hopefully get bound back.


For the technical line, it can not really tell what is going on in HK.  HK does affect by global factors.
Can also be affected by China as well.  
I can see small investor can do trade in HK through BOC in HK which is another proved China govt doesn't want to see HK collpase.  She will find a way to save HK; from 1997 till now whenver HK got problem.  
I still strongly believe HK market still good later.  No matter who are talking about bear market coming, it maybe in US, but can not crash HK market easily.
Unless such as carry trade or big investment banks got problem.  If only US internal depression, it won't really hurt HK much.

As said, China won't let HK crash, it is all about the facts.  QDII, and now small investors invest to HK directly.  Could be more and more benefits to HK if necessary.


Hope HSI keep moving up this week since it dropped 4000 pts from peak.  Rebound is so powerful like today

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Originally posted by nonhuman at 2007-8-21 01:46
I think China Government will keep out "release" money to Hong Kong. Too much money is in China. It will bubble up the asset market. She wants to release the surplus to international mark ...

I agreed so, it is a fact

Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price.

Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the same time, China will help HK market by releasing "benefits". Very luckily that we have such a good grandfather !!

The question now remains the way to find good stocks. Which are the targets of those investors from China ?? Blue chips, red chips, HSCEI chips or small chips ??

In the beginning, i think they will try some chips they are familiar with and those are not available for trading in the "A" market, such as some of the HSCEI chips and red chips.

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­ì©«¥Ñ 3a4b5c6c ©ó 2007-8-21 01:17 µoªí



I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today.  That is very good.

I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I ...

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-21 08:44 ½s¿è ]

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­ì©«¥Ñ cherryjasonchan ©ó 2007-8-21 08:41 µoªí
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price.
Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the sa ...

Always BUY "dragon head" stocks and you will be relatively safe.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-21 08:41
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price.

Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the sa ...

Chinese will definitely buy the topest one in the sector, and the gap huge different.
then will look into HKCEI and HK local blue chip

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-8-21 01:43 µoªí

Always BUY "dragon head" stocks and you will be relatively safe.

Need to buy dragon head of dragon heads to be safe...

Dragon head of a particular industry is simply not safe enough

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­ì©«¥Ñ mmr.ren ©ó 2007-8-21 11:26 µoªí


Need to buy dragon head of dragon heads to be safe...

Dragon head of a particular industry is simply not safe enough

So, choose 2628 lor...I think it's safe!!

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­ì©«¥Ñ ¤p¤p¤O ©ó 2007-8-21 11:35 µoªí
So, choose 2628 lor...I think it's safe!!

My favorites are :

#2628 (YES), #3328, #358, #939, #2866, #2343, #3311, #3323

More speculative : #569, #598, #656, #1813 #2380

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­ì©«¥Ñ nonhuman ©ó 2007-8-21 15:52 µoªí
How about 3968 ..... still very strong for this few days

Yes, that and #857, #883 etc.

688 is also very good. A very explosive quality China property stock !!!

For insurance company, I personally like 2318.

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-8-21 15:55 µoªí

Yes, that and #857, #883 etc.