Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250-day line and rebound.

Federal Reserve and other central banks should take the remedial action immediately otherwise the whole economy will collapse. Federal Reserve perhaps might need to cut the rate if the market is really very weak.

21,000 is the starting point of the present ride. Previously that point is with very high resistance, but now serve as the supporting point. If drop to 21,000, the total drop is 2,500 points (around 10%), that would be enough I suppose.

Yes, collecting some good quality stocks (for me I will buy 1398).

Good luck and take care !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 22:33 發表



Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 22:48 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 22:44
Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250- ...

Totally right and agreed.  Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two months after the speedy ride.

Just wish to inform you that Federal Reserve has injected another 16 billions to the liquity to save the market, so Yen now get back to 117.9X.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:06 發表



Totally right and agreed.  Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 23:12
Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two mon ...

Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not that good.

388, I missed that before too.  I already held 2823 before, bought at 90 bucks and sold at 130 4 months ago, and now hit 215!!!!  I am not a professional investor, but got experience in the market before, paid so much school fee, and now need to get back for my retirement

Also check on 2899 and 552, both are very potential quality stocks.
2899 is more risky, my target is $9 and 552 will hit over $10 12 months time; waiting for 3G license confirme by central govt soon.

Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell it with a considerable profit.

388 is actually a very good quality stock but most of the people think that it is too expensive (both in terms of price and P/E). Anyway the trend of 388 is sometime unpredictable. I am also waiting now for a price that could attract me to buy it again.

Back to the discussion in the market, it is good to see that Dow recovered most of its loss in the beginning and closed with a loss of around 30 points. However, recently I observed that the big crocodiles will make some changes to Dow only after the close of the european market, so last night Dow can't help the european market to get back the significant loss.

However, there are still a lot of uncertainties and bad news in the market. It is now very difficult to predict the trend of the market, unless Ben Benanke jump out and give the market some hints that rate could possibly be cut in the near future.

Federal Reserve pumped so much money into the market in these few days, and this action could imply that the situation in the market is really worst. We need to be alert of this !! Subprime crisis was identified for the first time in last Februray and at that time the problem was confined to several subprime companies. Nonetheless, this time it is now posing substantial threat to the market's liquity and other investment banks. In my point of view, the sitation now is more worst than the previous one we have in Feb (At least at that time, Federal Reserve haven't pumped money into the maret to hold the liquity healthy).

We need to keep close monitoring to the market and trade with caution !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:20 發表



Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not tha ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-11 20:56 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-11 20:51
Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell  ...

Stock and market are always unpredictable.  2823 & 388 are over for us now.  We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more money into market to stablize it, but some think it is worst therefore, jumped in that much money, maybe getter worse.

It is tough to predict the market, but just follow the trend how market runs and always be at high alert ourselves at all time.  

I will still do day trade for short run next week except monday, I have no time to watch the market.  For buying more quality stocks for long run, I will keep doing that if market getting much in a day, that is not bad for long run.

Besides, people around me keep talking about how bad the market will go down, almost everyone of them already sold or going to sell next monday.
It maybe a chance the market get steady for a while or rebound soon when most people look bad and lost confident on the market.  

Think and start to buy some good stocks for 4th quarter rise.

Yes, even if you have time on Monday, try to avoid day trade that day as we need to observe the performance of Dow and other european market first. As you said, the remedial action performed by the Federal Reserve might make the market even worst.

Haha, if your friends are experienced traders then you could listen to their advice to sell some of your stocks first. In my point of view, at the present time I will try to lose my weight in the stock market.

Friends around me also think that the market is very worst and another 1997 or 2000 disaster is incoming !! However, I just wish to tell you that they actually have very finite knowledge in stock investment. Some of them even ask me when is the trading time of the HK market !! MY GOD !!!

Therefore, in my point of view, HSI is still very healthy with a P/E of around 16. Our mastermind (China) will help (or they need our help for Shanghai and Shenzhen ??) to further develop the HK market. There is no major change in the economic indicators and factors in HK comparing to the past months (No, I am wrong, we have more positive news comparing to the past months -- QDII).

If everyone around you, especially those who are very little experiences, tell you that the market will collapse, it might be a good time for the experienced investor to buy some of the good quality stocks steps by steps.

Take care

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-12 01:49 發表



Stock and market are always unpredictable.  2823 & 388 are over for us now.  We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more  ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-12 12:50 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-12 12:48 發表
Yes, even if you have time on Monday, try to avoid day trade that day as we need to observe the performance of Dow and other european market first.  ...

Market P/E is healthy but no the mentality. Sometimes, it is more psychological rather than REAL.

Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such as 858), I will not buy that even the atomsphere is good at that time

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-12 15:32 發表

Market P/E is healthy but no the mentality. Sometimes, it is more psychological rather than REAL.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-12 21:01
Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such a ...

Yes, stock market always based on psychological effect and atmosphere more than actual factors to support.
Therefore, 3~4 line stocks ran crazy months ago with skyhigh PE.

Of course, when people around you to sell and ask you to sell, it is a beginning to buy some quality stocks for long time.  

Some people have said HSI would drop to 20000, 19000 or even 16000.  But many of them without any supportive factors, just "HOPE".  When market at 23500, some of them said, I woudl buy at 22500, but did not, and looking for 22000 and so and so.  And really down to a reasonable level.  Woudl they really have gut to buy.

I would start to buy when reach my target price step by step.  
eg: start to use 20% captial to buy stock when HSI reach 21500, another 30% at 21200, another 30% at 20500.
But I believe HSI would only down to 21000 only.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 00:17 發表
Yes, stock market always based on psychological effect and atmosphere more than actual factors to support. ...

Avoid sheep mentality but that can be very difficult.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-13 11:03

Avoid sheep mentality but that can be very difficult.

Yes, I agreed, the market is not easy.  It takes time to watch and analysis

It seems that BOJ will probably not to raise the interest rate at its meeting this month. That would be very good !! However, stepping into the european time zone, Yen go up from 118.1X to 117.89. However, the european markets are still rebounding and Dow Futures up around 70 points. Is there any trap out there ??

Below is the extract from bloombery.

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists forecast in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch."

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65 billion) to banks to support ``the normalization of conditions in the money market,'' the Frankfurt-based central bank said in a statement. The ECB ``notes that money market conditions are normalizing and that the supply of aggregate liquidity is ample.''"


Is the situation still bad to the level that ECB need to take the remedial action for the third day ?? The european market are now rebounding. Do the investors underestimate the severity of the credit crisis but ECB could predict what is going to happen??

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 18:03 發表
It seems that BOJ will probably not to raise the interest rate at its meeting this month. That would be very good !! However, stepping into the european time zone, Yen go up from 118.1X to 117.8 ...

JPY should start reverse at 115.0.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 18:09
"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65  ...

I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to take care of their mortgage & funding problem instead of just pump in more and more money to fund house.

I believe if Dow steady in next 2~3 days and no more mortgage bad news coming; the correction will be over.  And the market will back and forth between couple hundred pts for while before rises again.

Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the submprime tension will be lessened.

Yes, Dow today perhaps is just a rebound, and the following days will be crucial for us to determine whether the correction is over. Hope that no more bad news about subprime from other investing bank will come out again. However, the problem is always there if that haven't been solved. (In Feb 2007 we have the subprime problem, but haven't solved it and the market's focus was then M&A, and now the problem appears again this month)

Actually today the economic data of Japan give us a likely scenario that BOJ will not raise interest this month. This is actually a very positive news. However, Yen haven't been off to 119.XX. During European trading time, it even jump to near 117.9X region. It is quite strange indeed !! Perhaps Yen will go up again !!

I remember that last month when BOJ declared that the interest rate will be unchanged, Yen stand at 120.XX and haven't dropped back to 123.XX. One week afterward, then Yen jump to 119 and then 118 !!!

Other currency just as Euro/US and Pound/US are still very weak. 10 year US bond yield is still at 4.8XX, with a price of near 100. We need to be alert of that.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 21:21 發表




I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to ta ...

I agree with you prefectly !! Therefore, as I said before if those inexperienced investors or friends tell you to sell your stocks because economic crisis is coming, then we could start to collect some of the good quality stock.

Only if the investors forget about risk and say which is the next target of HSI, big drop will occur. The present wave of drop also start from the same date when the HSI break from its record high.

引用:

原帖由 nonhuman 於 2007-8-13 21:48 發表
Conspiracy: Every time there is financial Storm, Some good asset must be sold in undervalue price. Bankers can then "buy" the cheap asset. At the same time, rape the stock market. After f ...

50-day line today is at 22093. If Dow keep going up tonight, at least trading in the positive region, we might have chance to go back to 50-day line tomorrow. However, going back to 50-day line doesn't mean the correction is over.

Actually HSI going back to 50-day line might just filled the gap produced in last Friday, and then find the bottom again (100-day line at 21,230 ??). Indeed, HSI is still trade in the decending trend channel.

Only if HSI could break the resistance at 22,770 with a reasonable turnover, we could confirm that HSI escape from a crisis

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 22:26 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 22:04
Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the s ...

All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't see any problem
3. US govt is also fully support those investment banks to solve this problem
4. US has highly chance to cut interest rate in Sept
5. Blue chip earning report start this week and on
6. QDII capital coming very soon

Uncertain:
1. potential of more investment bank problem coming.


My conclusion today based on updated factors
If no more investment banks coming, or other unexpected major crisis, the market will be steady for consolidation in next 2 weeks.  By the end of Aug, the market will start to rise.
HSI strengthen supportive level will be 21200

Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that your beloved 3993 will become the chips under HKCEI next month. Good !! My 998 (actually it is a very bad stock with no good performance) will also become one of the members too !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 22:47 發表



All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't s ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 23:33 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 23:29
Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that yo ...

For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now and future as well. Such as 939 and 1398;  3328 also good if HSBC is okay for settle for mortgage crisis since both stocks are pretty behind the market rise recently.

At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because of its high P/E (really ??) or other reasons. Anyway, I was trapped now by 998 but luckily the money trapped in it is not very much. I could still wait and see more. It is because all the bank will have a tax relief from 33% to 25% because of the tax reformation (i don't know whether other investors remember this >??)

I love 1398 very much, and will consider to buy that after I escape from 998 (I don't wish to have overlap in my investment portifolios)

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 23:57 發表




For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now a ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-14 00:19 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-14 00:17
At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because ...

I know what you meant.  It is okay with small amount of investment on 998, take your time and wait for it rises with whole bank sector later.

In the investment, always try to hold with the topest one in the sector, it is always the best choice, cann't really go wrong.

Dow still up 50 pts, not bad at all, soon long as it stops going down