Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.

It is worthy to see #5 still lost today. One of the reasons for me to explain this is mainly because those small investors from China will not have much interest to buy this kind of "exotic" stocks at the early stage. They will only buy those with China background in the very beginning. Some other examples similar to #5 are #330 & #494.

Another reason for their drops today is perhaps the subprime crisis remain unsolved in US and Europe, and this nightmare still affect their recent performance. Henry Paulson just came out and said that there are liquidity concerns which will take time to play out. Likely that Dow Jones need to take some more time before its ride to the next record peak.

Some brokers predicted that the amount of the hot money from China to Hong Kong might reach 800 billion dollars. It is very huge as the capital size of the market is below 20,000 billion dollars. The hot money could provide long term support (and of course fluctuation) to the HK market.

Back to the discussion in the market, as mentioned before, 20-day line (at 22,139) serves as the resistance at the current stage. Even if HSI break this resistance in the morning, but finally it could not close above this line. 100-day line (at 21,343) could temporarily acts as the short term support to the HSI.

China has announced the ride in interest, and the ride in saving interest and the loan interest varies. This might exert some pressure to the stocks in the China banking industry. Likely that we will have a lower opening tomorrow. However, i don't think the market will drop too much, as there are lots of investors are waiting for chance to buy quality stocks.

Friends, trade with caution.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-21 22:14 編輯 ]

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-21 21:54
Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.

It is worthy t ...

Very good analysis again.
I agreed with your point of view.
I personally like 2628 the most.  Of course, 2318 is a very good one to hold for long too.  Actually insurance sector is almost the best sector in China market today.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-22 00:55 發表
Very good analysis again.
I agreed with your point of view.
I personally like 2628 the most.  Of course, 2318 is a very good one to hold for long too.  Actually insurance sector is almost ...

#2318 is second choice insurance stock.

Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.

#941 again and again these few days contributes so much to the HSI. It was $75 at its lowest last Friday, and yesterday and today it almost reached $93. Within these three or four trading days, it has $18 gain, which accounts for a increase of 24%. Was that too much and too fast ?? Will $93 serve as a wall again like few weeks ago and make #941 recede ??

Back to the discussion in the market, the HSI rise again with comparatively fewer turnover today, indicating that some people has finished profit taking, and some of the others at this stage prefer to watch and do nothing. HSI could close above 20-day line today which is a very good sign. All the gaps previoulsy produced were filled.

It is now very difficult to predict the trend with technical analysis. 9RSI (at 56) did not suggest the market is over-bought, the HSI might still have chance to get further up without correction. I remember last time the drop in Feb and March 06 also recovered in a speedy way and hit another peak. Therefore, we could not deny this scenario will come again this time.

Of course, we might also have chance to drop a little bit after filling all the gaps.

Dow is very positive at the early stage of today's trading. Don't know whether it could sustain before its close. We don't have data to be released tonight. However, we will have the employment data and the housing data on Thursday and Friday respectively, which will affect the trading atmosphere significantly.

In addition, BOJ will annouce its rate decision tomorrow noon. Market don't think that BOJ will keep the rate unchanged. If something come out which is out of expectation, the market will react very badly tomorrow afternoon. Keep an eyes on Yen.

Keep in mind that "The level of drop is unbelievable in the market, but at the same time the level of ride is also unexpected". Therefore, we should think in an "abnormal" way. This sentence applied to all the case in the market since the Christmas 06.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-22 22:38
Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.

#941 again and again these few days contrib ...

#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down.  So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure

For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothing special.

The remain uncertain factors after tomorrow.
1. 2nd mortgage issue in US
2. Potential correction or big correction in China stock market soon.

I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the "A" market is expected.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-22 23:29 發表



#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down.  So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure

For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothin ...

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-22 23:55
I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the & ...

I think we shall play more safe on our portfolio, I will probably sell most of my stocks which do not have A share and all call warrants at this moment.

Will hold share which have A share with big gap to H share.

From BOJ:

"The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent."

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-23 11:45 發表
From BOJ:
"The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent."

So that is good news?

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-23 14:02 發表

So that is good news?

It is just as expected!!

We have another big jump today for the HSI, with a quite good turnover. Within four days in this week, we have a increase of more than 2,000 points. Is it too much ??

I could think in another way. Last time, without the very good news that the mainland investors could make direct investment to the HK market, HSI could stand above 22,500 for a month. Now we have this piece of good news, so I think it is still acceptable if HSI stand at the present position. Of course, this wave of rebound is very speedy, just using 4 days and recover all the lose. However, do you think it is over-sold in the previous week ?? Don't underestimate the power of our mainland investors, they might pull the P/E of the HSI to more than 20.

Indeed, a little correction in the HK market will be more healthy. Anyway, Dow seems to be quite positive today after Bank of America said that they will help Countrywide by pumping money to them and get their shares. Likely that Dow will close at the positive region tonight. Hence, we might have another heap tomorrow.

Carry trade activities is active today and Yen recede to 116.44 (at around 6 p.m. Yen almost drop to 117.0). Almost all the high yield currency went up, British pound is good. 10 years US treasuray bond rate is going up a little bit.

For HK, the HSI had produced a very large gap today bewteen 22,800 and 22,300 (200 points ??). We might need to fill that in the coming few days before breaking the record high. RSI (9) =62 might not be too high. The top of the bollinger channel (at 23,498) might give some resistance, but luckily that the HSI is trading above the middle line of the channel today.

Trade with caution again !!

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-23 21:46 編輯 ]

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

Yes, the decision of federal fund rate is very important. There should be a FOMC meeting in 18 September. Whether rate cut before that is still a question mark. The market is now reflecting there will be a rate cut, if something come out on the other sizes will exert a very high pressure to the market. As long as you all understand, FOMC still need to take care of the possible inflation. They will only cut the rate if the market is really bad !

引用:

原帖由 你口水真多 於 2007-8-24 04:53 發表
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the ...

We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.

I personally don't think the drop of the HSI will be too much today as there are huge buying force at the back (not the mainland investors at the moment).

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-24 08:45 發表
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday ...

Maybe flat today la.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-24 08:45
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.

I pe ...

Dropping 180 pts now, but has rebounded from losing over 300 pts an hour ago.
Market today will not drop much, just a bit correction after rising 4 straight days with huge pts gained.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-24 11:15 發表
Dropping 180 pts now, but has rebounded from losing over 300 pts an hour ago.
Market today will not drop much, just a bit correction after rising 4 straight days with huge pts gained.

As I stated, flat today!

謝謝分析!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

引用:

原帖由 chinchinchin 於 2007-8-24 16:53 發表
謝謝分析!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

唔駛客氣! 多啲入嚟俾啲意見吖~

股神之見

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-24 16:49

As I stated, flat today!

Only dropped 45 pts today, that is pretty flat.
But I have made good money today especially from 2628 and related call warrants

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-24 17:14 發表
Only dropped 45 pts today, that is pretty flat.
But I have made good money today especially from 2628 and related call warrants

Yes and good on you!

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-24 17:17

Yes and good on you!

Yes, not bad at all, and now waiting for 2628 earning report release on next monday, hopefully 2628 can fly skyhigh.